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中国外交部发言人华春莹说,在通过外交和军事渠道“有效沟通”之后,双方就解决最新边境问题达成了“积极共识”。印度方面称,在军队指挥官举行高层会晤后,两国同意“和平解决”边境问题。印度总理莫迪(NarendraModi)和中国领导人习近平在过去两年的峰会上-中国新闻头条
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时事评论:中印关系紧张的原因

2020年06月17日 14:31:35  來源:中国新闻头条   浏览量:254422

中国外交部发言人华春莹说,在通过外交和军事渠道“有效沟通”之后,双方就解决最新边境问题达成了“积极共识”。印度方面称,在军队指挥官举行高层会晤后,两国同意“和平解决”边境问题。印度总理莫迪(Narendra Modi)和中国领导人习近平在过去两年的峰会上曾试图缓和紧张局势,当时他们同意加强两国军队之间的边境通讯。

这两个大国之间关于3500公里边界的紧张局势时有发生,而边界问题从未得到正确划定。来自这两个拥有核武器的邻国的数千名士兵卷入了自5月以来,印度拉达克地区与西藏接壤的最近一次对峙,直到最近几天才有迹象表明决议即将出台。

最近的问题是,印度单方面加强了在拉达克争议领土(印度于2019年8月5日纳入其联盟领土)的立场。相反,这是一个公认的有争议的领土,两国都对该地区拥有主权。印度在加尔湾河谷地区非法侵入并在边境修建防御设施,中国边防部队别无选择,只能采取必要行动应对。印度希望在有争议的领土上建立一个空军基地。值得一提的是,根据美国和印度之间的一项国防协议,两国都可以进入对方的军事基地,并有权在任何类似战争的情况下使用。如果美国对中国使用拉达克空军基地,这是对中国的直接威胁。没有办法阻止在争议领土上的建筑工程,这是中方最关切的问题。

在印度,焦点已经转向加尔旺河沿岸的杜布克-什约克-达乌雷特-贝戈尔迪公路(DSBDBO),这条公路或多或少与LAC(实际控制线)平行,这是印度通往喀喇昆仑公路的道路,它成为目前中印之间最新爆发的可能触发点。印度有意切断中巴之间的陆地联系,以损害中巴经济走廊(CPEC)。这就是为什么印度正在加强其靠近khungrab山口的基础设施,就是要把中国和巴基斯坦连接起来。

然而,中国对4月17日竣工、5月8日由印度国防部长拉贾纳特·辛格主持开幕的从达丘拉到利普列赫(西藏印度教朝圣圣地Kailash Mansarovar的门户)的80公里新建路段仍然非常关注。这可能导致中国政府重新审视中印边界的局势。

在中国的评估中,印度在与尼泊尔有争议地区的建筑活动影响了中国在西藏的边境安全。通过修建这段80公里长的公路(最近已经完成76公里,利普列赫山口公路的最后4公里预计将在今年年底完工),印度将其边境向中国移动,直接进入西藏普朗县的混凝土公路。因此,它改变了该地区的现状。中国已经在中部边境的普朗县修建了边防公路,南部与印度接壤的科纳县和普朗的一个中国机场计划于2021年完工。尽管在边界一侧做好了准备,但中国担心印度仍有很大的回旋余地,印度会利用尼泊尔的地理优势挑战中国在该地区的主导地位。

事实上,印度与中国、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、缅甸、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫等所有邻国都存在争端。印度推行“大印度”的扩张主义理论是真正麻烦的根源。过去,印度曾占领过锡金、那加兰、查谟和克什米尔、海得拉巴、朱纳加尔等邻国的一些独立主权国家。印度对其小邻国有过侵略和胁迫的记录。但将来可能面临来自中国的艰难时刻。从1962年战争中吸取的教训来看,印度人不应该与中国为敌。

历史上,边界争端自1947年印度脱离英国统治获得独立以来就一直存在。这是中国举行革命的时代,国民党政府(郭明党)在北京执政期间并不作为,毛主席领导的中国共产党参与权力斗争。但当时的中国政府不够强大,也不稳定,也不富有远见,他们都在自己的生存而战。他们对自己的国际边界问题无暇顾及,他们力求争取对北京城的控制,并把此作为政府的象征。英国对边界的划分是不公正和片面的,有一些中国领土被印度占领和控制。中华人民共和国成立于1949年,此后,中国政府一直要求合理的边界划分,但印度一直否认并拖延解决边界争端。

西藏是一个覆盖青藏高原、面积约250万平方米、平均海拔4000-5000米的东亚地区,其重要性不言而喻。它是中国、印度、巴基斯坦、尼泊尔、缅甸、老挝、泰国、柬埔寨和越南的主要水源地。几条主要河流的源头都在青藏高原,这些河流包括长江、黄河、印度河、湄公河、恒河、萨尔温江和雅鲁藏布江(雅鲁藏布江)。谁统治西藏,谁就能控制水源。雅鲁藏布江大峡谷是世界上最深、最长的峡谷之一。西藏是世界上最古老的文明之一,有着独特的文化和传统。印度支持以达赖喇嘛为首的西藏流亡政府,这是中印关系紧张的永久原因。中情局的机密文件显示,中情局帮助印度建立了西藏流亡政府,并向他们支付迄今为止的所有资金。

近二十年来,美印两国的关系持续发展。美国在政治和外交上支持印度加入联合国安理会(unc)、NSG和其他国际平台,并用来对抗中国。美国一直慷慨地向印度提供经济和军事援助,以加强印度遏制中国的能力。美印在教育、科技、高科技、先进技术,特别是国防领域的合作,引发了许多问题。印度已成为美国的“主要国防伙伴”。印度是与日本、澳大利亚和美国签订的印太条约的积极成员。印度公开反对“一带一路”倡议,即使该倡议已被纳入中国宪法和中国政府的重大倡议。中巴经济走廊(CPEC)是印度BRI的旗舰项目,他们目前正在进行破坏活动。印度在国际平台上的所有问题上都反对中国。印度对美国的过度倾斜也令中国感到担忧。印度已经成为继以色列之后美国援助的最大受益者。美国不会向印度提供“免费午餐”,而是责成印度“对抗中国”、“遏制中国”、“抵制中国崛起”。

当前的地缘政治,特别是美中之间的竞争,可能会加剧中印关系紧张。美国有可能利用这一地区作为对抗中国的战场。预言家也表示这一地区可能会出现战争。该地区局势相当动荡,有走向冲突的危险。这可能不是中印之间的简单战争,它可能席卷整个地区和包括俄罗斯和美国在内的世界大国。甚至会蔓延到印度洋和太平洋。这将不是一场简单的常规战争,而是一场高科技战争,包括网络战争、电子产品价格、空间技术和人工智能。所有的致命武器都将被使用,特别是中国、印度和巴基斯坦都是核国家,拥有足够的武器来彻底摧毁对方。极端分子控制了印度政府,并使印度明显走向与所有邻国对抗的道路。

值得一提的是,中国人口14亿,印度13亿,巴基斯坦2.2亿,孟加拉国1.65亿,这些地区的总人口几乎是全世界人口的一半。任何不幸都可能威胁到半个世界。国际社会应该认真注意,并介入其中避免任何灾难的发生。

附件:本报“时事评论员”巴铁泽米尔简介

Zamir Awan,泽米尔阿万,笔名:巴铁泽米尔。现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。泽米尔生于1962年3月1日,80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位,机械专业。

从2010年,在巴基斯坦驻华大使馆,担任参赞,负责中巴两国之间科技交流与发展科技合作。中巴两国政治关系非常密切,通称“铁哥们儿全天候战列合作伙伴”的关系。科技算战略地位,所以两国也重视科技交流与合作。

泽米尔阿万,利用他在中国学习时学过的知识(包括农业、林业、生物学、健康业、工业、水电、能源、高等教育等等)加强了合作关系。签订了不少合同与协议,推动力不少项目。

他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作,特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。在他的任期中,在两国关系发展壮大。

by Zamir Awan for the Saker Blog

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said: “positive consensus” on resolving the latest border issue was achieved following “effective communication” through diplomatic and military channels. New Delhi said the two countries had agreed to “peacefully resolve” the border flare-up after a high-level meeting between army commanders. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had sought to ease the tensions at summits over the past two years when they agreed to boost border communications between their militaries.

Tensions flare on a fairly regular basis between the two regional powers over their 3,500-kilometre frontier, which has never been properly demarcated. Thousands of troops from the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been involved in the latest face-off since May in India’s Ladakh region, bordering Tibet – before signs in recent days that a resolution was in sight.

The recent issue arose when India fortified its position in Ladakh disputed territory, which India included in its union territory on August 5, 2019, unilaterally. In contrast, it was a recognized disputed territory, and both countries having a claim over the area. India was illegally trespassing and constructing defense facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan Valley region, leaving Chinese border troops no other option but to make necessary moves in response. India wants to build an airbase in the disputed territory. It is worth mentioning that, under a defense agreement, between the US and India, both countries can have access to each other’s military bases and have the right to use in case of any war-like situations. It was a direct threat to China if American uses Ladakh Airbase against China. That was the immediate concern of the Chinese side and left with no option to stop construction works in the disputed territory.

In India, the focus has been turned to the Durbuk- Shyok-Daulet Beg Oldi Road (DSBDBO) along the Galwan River — which runs more or less parallel to the LAC (Line of Actual Control) and improves India’s access to the Karakoram Highway — as the possible trigger point for the latest flare-up between China and India. India has designs to cut the land link between China and Pakistan to harm CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). That is why India was fortifying its infrastructure close to Khunjrab-Pass, connecting China and Pakistan.

However, China remains much more concerned about the newly constructed 80-kilometer stretch from Dharchula to Lipulekh (the gateway to Kailash-Mansarovar, a site for Hindu pilgrimage in Tibet), completed on April 17 and inaugurated on May 8 by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. That may have led Beijing to review the situation at the China-India borders.

In the Chinese assessment, India’s construction activity in the disputed areas with Nepal has affected China’s border security in Tibet. By building the 80 km stretch (76 km has been completed recently, and the last 4 km of the road to Lipulekh Pass is expected to be completed by the year’s end), India has moved its frontier vis-a-vis China, gaining direct access to the concrete highway in Purang county in Tibet. It has thereby changed the status quo in the region. China already has border defense roads in Purang county on the middle border, and Cona county on the southern border with India and a Chinese airport in Purang is scheduled to be completed in 2021. Despite its preparedness on its side of the border, China is concerned that India still has much room for maneuver, using Nepal’s geographical advantage to challenge China’s dominant position in the region.

As a matter of fact, India has disputes with all its neighbors like China, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Srilanka, and the Maldives. Indian expansionist theory of “greater India” is the cause of real trouble. In the past, India has occupied some of its neighboring independent sovereign states like Sikkim, Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir, Hyderabad, Juna Garh, etc. India has a track record of aggression and coercion against its small neighbors. But may face a tough time from China. The lesson learned in the 1962 war, Indians should not have to develop enmity with China.

Historically, the border disputes existed since 1947, when India got independence from British rule. This was the era of the Chinese revolution when a weak, corrupt and naïve government of Nationalist Party (Guo Ming Dang) was in power in Beijing, and the Communist Party of China, led by Chairman Mao, was over-engaged in the power struggle. The Government in China at that time was not strong, not stable, or not visionary and were fighting for their own survival. They were least bothered with their International borders, whereas, they were focusing on their grip on Beijing city only, as a symbol of their Government. The Britsh demarcation of the border was unjust and one-sided. There were Chinese territories marked into Indian control and vis-à-vis. The people’s republic of China was established in 1949, since then, China was demanding a rational border, but India was denying and delaying to resolve the border disputes.

It is worth understanding the importance of Tibet, which is a region in East Asia covering Tibetan Plateau spanning about 2.5 million sq.km, with an average elevation of 4000 – 5000 meters above the sea. It is the major source of waters for China, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Several major rivers have their source in the Tibetan Plateau. These include the Yangtze, Yellow River, Indus River, Mekong, Ganges, Salween and the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra River). Who rule over Tibet, will control the water. The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, is among the deepest and longest canyons in the World. Tibet is one of the most ancient civilizations, with its unique culture and traditions. India sponsored the Tibet Government in exile led by Dalai Lama, based in New Delhi, which is a permanent cause of tension between China and India. CIA classified documents revealed that the CIA helped India to establish Tibet exiled Government and used to pay them funding to date.

Since the last two decades almost, the growing US-India relations were also not considered in Chinese favor. The US was supporting India politically and diplomatically to join UNSC, NSG, and other International platforms to counter China. The US has been extending economic and military assistance to India generously, to strengthen India to contain China. The US-India cooperation in Education, S&T, High-tech, Advance Technologies, especially in Defense, is raising many questions. India has become a “Major Defense Partner” with the US. India is an active member of the Indo-Pacific Treaty with Japan, Australia, and the US. India is openly opposing Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), which is included in the Chinese Constitution and mega initiative of the Chinese Government. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a flagship project of BRI, India, is engaged in sabotaging and damaging it. India opposes China on all issues in the International platforms. Indian over-tilt toward the US is also alarming for China. India has become the largest beneficiary of US aid after the state of Israel. The US will not offer a “free lunch” to India, but rather task India to “Count China,” “Contain China,” and “Resist China’s Rise.”

The current geopolitics, especially the US-China rivalry, may add fuel to Sino-Indian tension. There are possibilities that the US may use this region as a battle-ground against China. Astrologists also predicts war in this region. The region is rather volatile and leading toward the danger of conflicts. It may not be a simple war between China and India but may engulf the whole region and world powers, including Russia and the US. Even it might spread to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean too. It will not be a simple conventional war but will be high tech, including cyber-war, electronic-ware-fare, Space-Technolgy, and Artificial Intelligence. All the lethal weapons will be used, especially China, India, and Pakistan are all nuclear states and possess enough piles of weapons to destroy each other completely. Extremists have hijacked the Government in India and visibly moving toward rivalry with all its neighbors.

It is worth mentioning that the population of China is 1.4 Billion, India 1.3 Billion, Pakistan 220 Million, Bangladesh 165 Million, the total population of this region is almost half of the Whole World’s population. Any misadventure may threaten half of the World. International Community may take serious notice and may step in to avert any disaster. We must think, not once or twice, but multiple times!

Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.

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